New faces and a changing world order?
29/01/2024
Meeting a friend after some years, I was comforted as we quickly slid back into our familiar, playful conversation. But I also noticed how she had aged; there were new lines caressing her face, which was framed by a saggier jowl. I drew the obvious conclusion but one which I would rather deny; the same must be true of me and many of my contemporaries who I see more regularly. I just don’t notice the changes.
We like what we know and the familiar is what we take for granted. But people and situations change, often in front of us, while we remain if not oblivious, then unwilling to accept the new landscape before us. The power of the west and in particular the US, has been formidable since the end of the Second World War. But is the violent rupture of the wars in Ukraine and Israel/ Gaza, revealing the new face of the global stage?
It was the Defence Secretary, Grant Shapps, who in a speech in the new year, spoke of moving from a post war era to a pre war world. Contrast that with the views of senior UK military figures. The former head of the armed forces, Lord Dannat recently criticised the shrinking size of the British army. While the man currently in that job, General Sir Patrick Sanders argued Britain should train a ‘citizen army’ in preparation for a land war of the future. He warned that Russia’s war in Ukraine was about more than land and territory - it was, he said, about defeating our system and way of life. The Cold War - but warmer.
This week, tensions between the US and Iran have ratcheted up after three US troops were killed on an attack on their base in Jordan by Iranian backed militants. Headlines spoke of the pressure on President Biden to find a path between deterrence and an escalation into a full blown conflict.
And this attack comes after the Iranian backed Houthis targeted shipping in the Red Sea. The US responded with airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.
The BBC quoted Robin Wright, from the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars as saying ‘Tehran has achieved what the Pentagon calls military ‘overmatch’ - a level of capability in which a country has weaponry that makes it extremely difficult to check or defeat.’ A thought that may be on the minds of many inside the White House.
President Biden has been a staunch ally of Israel since the horrific attacks of October the 7th, a position which may have come at some political cost at home. As the war in Gaza has dragged on and concerns have grown among American allies and allies of Israel, about the loss of Palestinian life and the plausibility of ‘defeating Hamas’ by military means, the US President has maintained his support. In return, Israel’s Prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has repeatedly rejected the possibility of the creation of a Palestinian State, which countries, including the US, believe is the key to long term stability in the region. Mr Netanyahu doesn’t appear to see a need for a quid pro quo.
I haven’t mentioned China, India or the growing assertiveness of the Gulf States. But the world is changing, rapidly and while the generals may be thinking about armies and the politicians about bilateral relations, are we oblivious to the new lines which have been drawn? US power is being stretched - the face of the world has changed.